Shallow end or deep end?

I've been feeling guilty about not posting for so long.  If you look at the publishing dates you can see the intervals between posts grow longer and longer.   Hmm.

Despite the lack of posts, there has been progress...I'll try to summarize.

I've been consistently checking Craigslist to find carts for sale.  I noticed that as we transitioned to fall there were more carts for sale and they were not moving quickly.  None of them would meet my requirements as is, but they could be adapted.  It started me thinking about whether it really made sense to try to open during the slowest time of the year.  

Would it make sense to incur the start up costs, pay rent and utilities, and maintain perishable inventory (not to mention hanging out in an unheated trailer for several hours a day) when I might have little or no business?  Or would it be better to open in March, say, when business at the pods should be picking up, but I would still have the opportunity for a slow ramp up to high season? Especially if the surplus of carts for sale leads to lower prices.

I'm confident that waiting is the right decision, however it led to an overall loss of momentum which I'm struggling with a bit.  I'm helped by deadlines, you see, and since that deadline moved out by 3-4 months, my efforts have slowed.  

I must also admit that when I do the math, naturally being conservative, the numbers are a little underwhelming.  I'm not looking for / thinking that this would be a highly lucrative business.   I want job satisfaction and adequate income.  

Then, two weeks ago (give or take), I was contacted by a representative of "the Zipper", a new development that is currently under construction on a small triangle that was formerly a used car lot at NE 28th and Sandy Blvd.   It will be similar to the cluster of micro-restaurants at NE 24th and Glisan (same developers) but with some enhancements such as shared enclosed seating.  The restaurant spaces are between 500-600 square feet and it is scheduled for official opening in February.

The rents are relatively high per square foot by restaurant standards, however, that can be largely accounted for by the fact that nearly all of the space is dedicated to the kitchen and front counter, rather than tables, restrooms, etc.

After touring the site and meeting with two of the developers, I found myself intrigued by the possibility.  Mario had asked very early on whether I should consider a "micro" space initially, and I was convinced then that I needed to "prove out" Bywater Grocery concept via a cart and would gradually work toward having this type of "brick and mortar."   Now I'm not so sure.    If you would, walk along with me as I attempt to think this through...

PROS:

• Should be much less seasonal than cart pods given interior seating, indoor bathrooms
• Shares benefits with pods of having multiple cuisine offerings grouped together 
• Located at busy intersection with massive commuter traffic and high visibility 
• Will include a full service bar (as another tenant)
• Opportunity for larger menu and specials (Jambalaya, Gumbo, BBQ shrimp)
• MUCH greater upside potential
• Better security / safety
• Not vulnerable to losing cart space due to site development
• Micro-restaurant concept has been very successful at other location

CONS:

• At least double the initial capital investment.  The spaces will have painted drywall, polished cement floor, plumbing, electrical and gas hookups.   All internal construction, equipment, decor is tenant responsibility.
• Higher fixed expenses (rent, utilities, etc)
• Will require at least four employees as of opening
• Site does not have ample parking.  The same is true of many cart sites, as well, though
• More external dependencies prior to opening (Site construction, contractor, permitting, etc)
• No established customer base for site (vs. established cart pods)

My friend, mentor and former boss, Marie, advised me that I have the most meaningful insights when I can be dispassionate.   I'm finding it difficult to access at the moment.

[More to come...]